The 11 o'clock News

“LOST” Suitcase Nukes – The Jinn Escapes

Hollywood has made television shows and movies about them.  "LOST" is a countdown to the threat. Fox thriller 24 devoted its entire last season to Jack Bauer's hunt for one of them in Los Angeles. Even the Federal Emergency Management Agency has alerted Americans to their existence,  information the White House includes on its website: “SUITCASE NUKES.”

FEMA warns that terrorists' use of a nuclear weapon would probably be limited to a “LOST” 'suitcase' weapon."    During the 1960s, intelligence agencies received reports from defectors that Soviet military intelligence officers were carrying portable nuclear devices in suitcases. The threat was too scary to stay secret, government officials said, and word leaked out.   The Jinn was never put back in the bottle.

But other government experts and intelligence officials say such a threat gets vastly more attention than it deserves. These officials said a true suitcase nuke would be highly complex to produce, require significant upkeep and cost a small fortune.

"The suitcase nuke is an exciting topic that really lends itself to movies," said Vahid Majidi, the assistant director of the FBI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate.

Majidi defines what a Hollywood-esque suitcase nuke would look like: a case about 24 inches by 10 inches by 12 inches, weighing less than 50 pounds, that one person could carry. It would contain a device that could cause a devastating blast.  Nuclear devices are either plutonium, which comes from reprocessing the nuclear material from reactors, or uranium, which comes from gradually enriching that naturally found element.  Majidi says it would take about 22 pounds of plutonium or 130 pounds of uranium to create a nuclear detonation. Both would require explosives to set off the blast, but significantly more for the uranium.

Although uranium is considered easier for terrorists to obtain, it would be too heavy for one person to lug around in a suitcase.  Plutonium would require the cooperation of a state with a plutonium reprocessing program. It seems highly unlikely that a country would knowingly cooperate with terrorists because the device would bear the chemical fingerprints of that government. "I don't think any nation is willing to participate in this type of activity," Majidi said.  That means the fissile material probably would have to be stolen. "It is very difficult for that much material to walk away," he added.

In a 60 Minutes interview retired Gen. Alexander Lebed, once Russia's national security chief, the separatist government in Chechnya had portable nuclear devices, which led him to create a commission to get to the bottom of the Chechen arsenal, according to a Center for Non-proliferation Studies report. He said that when he ran the security service, 108 or more were missing.  

Yikes!  What’s preventing the “LOST” suitcase nuke scenario?  Well, a suitcase nuke would not last more than several months because the nuclear core would decompose so quickly.  Nuclear devices require a lot of maintenance because the material that makes them so deadly also can wreak havoc on their electrical systems. The more compact the devices are the more frequently they need to be maintained. Everything is compactly designed around that radiation source, which damages everything over a period of time.

Regardless, the Homeland Security Department is planning to spend more than $1 billion on radiation detectors at ports of entry. But government auditors found that the devices cannot distinguish between benign radiation sources, such as kitty litter, and potentially dangerous ones, including highly enriched uranium. Hello, kitty!

But wait, it gets worse:    According to Dr. Ray E. Kidder, a former nuclear bomb designer at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, fusion research is being used to develop a new generation of undetectable small nukes.  Ridder and Dr. Frank von Hipple, a former adviser to the Clinton White House who now works at Princeton University  have warned that pure-fusion research could result in devices ''compact enough to be used as weapons.''    Dr. Hans A. Bethe, a Nobel laureate who was a main architect of the first atomic bomb, a half-century ago, also warns of the dangers of ''pure-fusion weapons.''

Weapons scientists are pursuing a number of smaller projects that strive at miniaturizing the machinery needed for such feats.  The fear is that proposed ignition systems are getting quite small, raising the prospect of pure-hydrogen bombs that could be easily transported to distant targets.

Fire + Water: Critics predict terrorists will be able to travel in economy class with “LOST” suitcase nukes. While nukes today are fueled by uranium and plutonium, which are scarce and costly to acquire, fuel for hydrogen fusion is relatively easy to obtain and that a pure-hydrogen bomb could in theory be cheap to build.  The main fuel for nuclear fusion is deuterium, an isotope of hydrogen that is ubiquitous in sea water, a “LOST” world indeed.    

“LOST's” Message: Letting Jin and Sun out of the Bottle

One of the big unanswered questions about “LOST” is:  What is the source of the “juice” that powers the island?  

As Sawyer, Michael and Jin, who carried the message bottle off the island, discovered, wind power can be very unreliable. 

The island would be a perfect spot for a solar farm.  But today's solar cells convert only 10-15% of their energy into electricity. Even if this percentage were to quadruple and solar cell prices were to simultaneously drop to one-tenth of their previous price, solar power would still not come close to meeting industry's need for energy.

There were no signs of burning coal or other fossil fuels clouding the skies of the “LOST” island paradise. 

What about nuclear fission?  Perhaps a nuclear fission reactor was the threat to the island that Desmond used the key to activate the fail safe device.  But then where are the toxic waste dumps and the cooling towers? 

'Sun in a bottle": “LOST” has many references to nuclear fusion and the sun: 108, Helium-3, heavy water and the mysterious crimson lights that may indicate the island is powered by nuclear fusion.   If nuclear fusion were implemented as our primary energy source, not only would the huge amounts of greenhouse gases virtually disappear, but it could be used to generate automobile fuels cleanly, thus allowing a truly environmentally friendly automobile. The holy grail of energy production is a source that is clean, reliable and cheap.   Rather than waiting for the sun to shine, why not put sunshine in a bottle?

Perhaps because it is also deadly?  One of the issues that has received very little public scrutiny relative to its potential historic magnitude is the problem of pure fusion weapons -- that is, thermonuclear weapons that do not require fissile nuclear triggers (plutonium or highly enriched uranium). Such thermonuclear weapons have not yet been developed because their scientific feasibility has not been proven. But the devices to accomplish that difficult task, which has eluded researchers for decades, either exist or are now under construction, provided they work as their designers hope. Notable examples are the US National Ignition Facility (NIF) being built at Livermore, California and a similar French facility being built near Bordeaux, France (Laser Mégajoule, or LMJ). As a result, we are at a crucial technical and legal juncture in the development of new types of nuclear weapons.

The current period is comparable to the late 1940s and early 1950s, when decisions regarding fission-triggered thermonuclear weapons were being made. Once the feasibility of such weapons was established by a 1952 US test, which was not of a deliverable weapon, the pressure to develop huge arsenals of thermonuclear weapons in the United States and the Soviet Union became inexorable.

What will stop new highly dangerous and destructive nuclear weapons from being developed? The time to do so is now, before their feasibility is established. Once feasibility is demonstrated, the pressures from nuclear weapons laboratories as well as the military establishment to design and build them will be immense. We have one advantage over the time when fission-triggered thermonuclear weapons were developed in the 1950s. We have a CTBT that bans all nuclear explosions.

Such illegal explosive experiments are planned for the US National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the French Laser Mégajoule (LMJ). These experiments, and hence the NIF and LMJ, appear to be illegal under the CTBT. By the same criterion, some planned joint US-Russian magnetized target fusion experiments (MTF) at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico are also illegal. It is therefore essential to stop the construction of NIF and LMJ and cancel certain MTF experiments at Los Alamos. Laser and other similarly large devices are not themselves weaponizable, but could work in combination with other approaches, like MTF, to create usable weapons.

Perhaps JJ was sending US a message when Sun hid the message bottle that washed up on shore.   As Aladdin discovered with the Jinn, be careful what you wish for:  wishes can have disastrous, horrific, and sometimes fatal consequences.  While the future of nuclear fusion power, sun in a bottle, appears to be bright, it may have a dark ending for US all.  108,  the clock is ticking....

The Eagles Have Crash Landed

Watching Mr. Sleepy Duh-novan McNabb yawning as if he just woke up before kickoff, one should not be surprised the Eagles where not ready to play the Ravens.   After witnessing the pathetic bitchslapping the Ravens then put on the pathetic Eagles yesterday, one can  imagine the scream-fest that is going on inside Andy Reid's brain today.  Andy Reid, the GM who is responsible for the lack of a back-up plan to replace an oft-injured Brian Westbrook, has to be contemplating firing Andy Reid the coach, for failing consistently on third and ones.  

The benching of Duh-novan McNabb is a sign of both Coach Andy and GM Andy's desperation.  Andy the GM has to justify his questionable selection of QB Kolb and Coach Andy has to prove to his guys that nobody's job is safe --including his own.

The problem is Andy, the Coach and the GM.  Brian Westbrook should not be playing injured, Coach Andy.  Without a running game, GM Andy, there is no passing game.  Sleepy McNabb is no longer capable of running out of harm's way.   What to do, what to do?

Here's a thought: Hire that defensive genius of the Giants.  Maybe he can bring UFA Brandon Jacobs along with him.  Perhaps Coach Andy can replace his buddy Childress in Minnesnowta and he can take Mr. Sleepy with him.

The Curious Case of the Erie Pizza Collar Bomber – final slice

"C C’s (Colombian Connection) Pizza”

Kenneth Barnes will have his day in court - a scheduled sentencing for December 3, 2008 at 10:00 a.m.

The family of Brian Wells will probably never have a chance for justice because “crazy” Marj Diehl Armstrong probably never will have her day in court.  And, of course, William Rothstein will not have a chance to establish his innocence because he’s dead.   

Family and friends of Brian Wells insist that the pizza collar bomber case is not solved as it is missing some key ingredients, such as:  

-- How does Brian Wells, a quiet, law abiding man who never exhibited any previous behavior suggesting a criminal lifestyle, turn into a stone cold bank robber overnight?

 -- How does an over-the-hill gang that couldn’t shoot straight concoct a ten-page plan to execute a brazen robbery in broad daylight, stump a multi-agency taskforce, but also show incredible lapses – e,g.  call from a pay phone near a conspirator’s house , and then blow it all by talking out-of-box to prison snitches?

-- Where is the evidence the “evil genius” William Rothstein was an experienced bomb maker?

-- Who and where are the still unidentified two young men who are persons-of-interest?

Truth is often stranger than fiction.  But the fiction the prosecution is passing as the truth in the Erie Pizza Collar bomber case needs to be challenged by some responsible authority.   Until there is substantial evidence that Brian Wells was a co-conspirator in the collar bomb case, other than the “good word” of a criminal with motive to avoid the death penalty and circumstantial evidence that an average defense attorney would knock out of the courtroom, let US consider the possibility there is a connection with the Colombia collar bomb case.    If so, then some sick terrorist - albeit incompetent - wanna-bees are out there, planning to deliver their next attack.    

CHANGE or more of the SAME?

A hallmark of the Bush and Cheney regime was the suppression and punishment of dissent, including exposing covert government agents.   If we are to believe the election of Barack Obama is a mandate for CHANGE in the US government,  then this item may be an indication that this change is more of the same:

An American working as a security guard at the US embassy in London has been fired following comments he made on his website about President-elect Obama. Those comments, according to the Guardian, included:

"… ideals that are the very cornerstone of American liberty and democracy could very well become an ephemeral memory of American history under the socialist leadership of the incumbent Barrack Obama.

"… The real question of concern, now that Obama is the president-elect, is what promises have Obama's camp given in return to these socialist, communist, fascist and terrorist supporting nations and special interest groups? Such accolades and endorsements do not come easy in this nuclear age."

The decision to fire the guard appears to have been made jointly by the American diplomats at the embassy and the Wales-based company that employed him."

Hmmmm.... I suspect the guard was probably fired for other reasons but just in case this story is accurate:

Assuming the security guard used his own computer to post on his own website and the Guardian accurately summarized the extent of the security guard's "misbehavior",  why did the US embassy react in this matter?  Bush-Cheney aside, employees of the federal government do have a right to free speech. 

Dear Mr. President-elect,

I know you are very busy saving the US economy and millions of jobs are at stake, but if you can find the time, please have Mrs. Clinton look into this AmEmb London's personnel action that cost an American citizen his job for speaking his mind on his own time.  Apparently the US embassy is unaware there is a new sheriff in town and it is okay once again to tell the world what you think of the president of US without fear of reprisal from a despotic government.  

The Curious Case of the Erie Pizza Collar Bomber – Slice 7

An Erie-Colombian Collar Bomber Connection?

Let US assume there is a Colombian connection between the collar bomb murders in Erie and La Palestina.  Perhaps the young men who attacked Elvia Cortes are the same “guys with dark skin” who attacked Brian Wells.  If so, it is highly unlikely they would have traveled all the way from Colombia to Erie to commit the crime.  It is probable they had immigrated either to the US or Canada. (NB: There is a significant Colombian population in the Toronto area; Erie is less than four hours away by car.)

Curious Clue:  “One” Looks Like “Two”

There are two unidentified persons-of-interest.  They have similar facial features.  Brothers perhaps? 

Curious Clue:  “It’s da bomb and a sophisticated one too.”

The collar bomb that killed Brian Wells was not a first effort.   According to the prosecution, the device that killed Brian was rigged to the collar assembly in such a way as to make it appear that attempts to remove the device would have detonated it.  Portions of the device were meant to appear to be “booby traps” but were not.  Moreover, the device was armed in such a way that contact with the device through any attempted manual entry would likely have detonated it. The bomb maker designed the device in such a way that attempts to deactivate the device in the time allotted would have failed.

(NB:  The collar bomb in La Palestina was described by police as one of the most sophisticated devices ever seen in Colombia.)

Although Barnes says Rothstein built the collar bomb, there have been no reports the police found any evidence or witnesses who knew Rothstein liked to experiment with explosives.

Curious Clue:  Which bank would an out-of-towner view?  

Why that particular bank?   Assuming the perps were not locals, it would not be surprising they would select the PNC bank at the Summit Town Center.  It would be the first one they would have seen when they arrived in Erie if they exited onto Peach Street off I-90, a major throughway to Buffalo and Canada.  It would also provide a quick getaway to an out-of-towner.  

Curious Clue:   Who and what was in the woods, who?

According to the prosecution, when investigators arrived at the exit of I-79, they retrieved a note that instructed the reader to travel back onto I-79 south to the McKean Township sign and again walk into the woods for further instructions.  At that location investigators found an empty jar without a note in it, with marker tape attached.  The tape appeared to have been broken and was attached at the other end to a tree in the vicinity.

The evidence would show that somebody removed that note from the time of the robbery to the time investigators arrived.  Given the small window from the time Wells was apprehended until the police arrived at the woods it is likely there was a person waiting for the money at the I-79 Exit.  Perhaps  the young man that witnesses saw running frantically from the woods across a busy highway to the Millcreek Mall parking lot?

And finally, why would Marj risk going back to the woods, if , according to the prosecution, the plan was for Rothstein to take the money from Brian when he left the bank?   And if the plan was to remove "something" from the scene at the woods, then why the last minute dash to Rothstein’s house to change cars?   Time was also running out on the perps too.

The Curious Case of the Erie Collar Bomber – Slice 6

The Erie-Colombian Collar Bomb Connection

"You see, my dear Watson, it is not really difficult to construct a series of inferences, each dependent upon its predecessor and each simple in itself.   If, after doing so, one simply knocks out all the central inferences and presents one's audience with the starting-point and the conclusion, one may produce a startling, though possibly a meretricious, effect."  -  Sherlock Holmes

If William Rothstein told the truth that he was not involved in the collar bomb attack and if the family and friends of Brian Wells knew Brian would not get involved in a bank robbery, then who did it?

FBI Agent Ken McCabe said in an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America” that the explosive used in the device that killed Brian Wells was of a kind that he had only seen once – in Colombia.

On May 15, 2000,  Elvia del Carmen Cortes was attacked by four young men wearing hoods in La Palestina, Colombia.  They placed a collar packed with explosives around her neck and demanded she get them $7500.  Elvia died before police could disarm the collar bomb.   A bomb technician was also killed trying to disarm it.  

The heinous murder caused a national outrage and the usual suspects – the FARC – were immediately accused of the crime.   The FARC disavowed any connection with her murder.   Police later concluded that indeed the FARC was not responsible for the murder.  The La Palestina crime remains unsolved.

The La Palestina case has many curious aspects which may provide clues to the motive of her killers:

 Why La Palestina?  It’s a small town in a region that had few reports of FARC terrorism.  Interestingly, the date of the attack, May 15, may be significant.  Consider that May 15, 1948 was the start of the Palestine War.    Also, 1948 was the year of the assassination of Jorge Elizer Gaitan, who was the leading candidate for the presidency of Colombia.  His assassination sparked a violent outburst – el Bogotazo - which resulted in a period of civil war, La Violencia.

Why Eliva del Carmen Cortes?  Her attackers surely knew that Elvia and her husband were not wealthy.  They lived on a small farm.  Her attackers knew her schedule, that her husband left at 5am, that she milks her cows. They were waiting for her.  They carried out the attack with precision.  Her attackers left a fake gun and a taped message on a cassette. Police described it as political message, something that was read out of a book.

Perhaps the attack on Elvia Cortes was an act of political terrorism and her killers were connecting the continued violence in Palestine with La Violencia in Colombia.  Interestingly, Cortes was the name of a Colombian military officer Gaitan successfully defended in a murder trial the day before his death.  If the motive of the La Palestina attackers was political terrorism, it was successful as the national outrage in response to the collar bomb murders disrupted peace talks between the FARC and the Pastrana government.

And if the Colombian police investigation was getting too close to identifying the killers and they left the country,  where would these young men go? 

The Curious Case of the Erie Pizza Collar Bomber – Slice 5

What about William?

The prosecution says Kenneth Barnes fingered William Rothstein as the one who allegedly helped plan the bank robbery and built the collar bomb.  Press reports described William as quirky, eccentric, and brilliant.   So how did William, the “evil genius”, get caught? 

Answer:  He basically turned himself into the police. William first came to investigators' attention about a month after Brian Wells' murder when he phoned police to tell them he had a body in the basement of his abandoned house. Rothstein told police that the body of James Roden was in a freezer.  He told them that his former fiancée, Marjorie Diehl-Armstrong, had shot Roden with a shotgun, then gave him $2,000 to help get rid of the body and weapon and to clean up the crime scene.

If William was the evil genius, why would he:

- Draw police attention to himself by admitting to helping cover-up the murder that was committed by the same woman the prosecution says was the ringleader of the bank robbery?

-- Arrange for the plan to be staged near his house, only a couple feet from the dirt road leading back to the television tower?  

-- Use a pay phone near his house to call Mama Mia’s for the pizza delivery?

According to Barnes, the day of the incident he was with the others at the tower site where the device was affixed to Wells.  Barnes said that when Wells realized that the device was real, Wells didn't want to wear it. Barnes claimed that one shot was fired from a gun and the device was then placed on Wells’ neck

Here’s a question:  How would Wells know the bomb was real?  Would an "evil genius" tell him before he locked it around Wells’ neck?

Barnes said the gun that “someone” used to stop Wells from running away was a small caliber revolver.   Investigators reportedly discovered a small caliber revolver in Rothstein’s vehicle, loaded, with one bullet having been fired from it.. 

Here’s a question:  Was a ballistics test ever done to compare the bullet in Wells’ leg with the revolver?

And another question:  Why did the “evil genius” keep the revolver when it was used in the crime? 

Why didn’t the “evil genius” ditch the revolver in the landfill with the rest of the incriminating evidence?

All good questions. But Rothstein can’t answer them because he died of leukemia in 2004.  Until his death he maintained complete innocence in the case of Brian Wells, even going so far as to leave a written statement to that claim in his house.  

So, William, who is terminally ill, admits to covering up the murder of Rhoden but insists to his grave that he had nothing to do with the murder of Brian.  Why would he lie? What would he fear?  The death penalty?  His lawyer relates that Rothstein passed a polygraph test, and wasn't considered a suspect in the Wells murder. 

Barnes’ story would be more credible if he could pass a polygraph test.  What would he lie?  What would he fear?   Hmmmm....the death penalty?

 

A Lame Duck in the Hand, Et tu Bush?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/20/world-leaders-dont-shake_n_145141.html

A recent video of the G20 meeting may be an indication the world has turned the page on the  Lame Duck.  Some,  including French President Nicolas Sarkozy, are doing their Dick Cheney impression by taking potshots in the bush.

Sarkozy questioned the prez over his handling of Russia's war with Georgia in August and US economic policy.   Sarkozy, who helped broker a ceasefire agreement that ended hostilities in Georgia, underscored his different approach from Bush when he received a French foreign policy journal's award for "political courage". Sarkozy cited the conflict in Georgia again as he took a veiled shot at Bush, who will hand the keys to the White House to Democrat Barack Obama in January.

"Between the strategy of some of Georgia's friends and the strategy of the European Union, Europe's was more effective," Sarkozy said.

The world financial crisis has also been a source of disagreement between Paris and Washington.

The conservative French leader has repeatedly pointed to America's "responsibility" in the financial turmoil.  He targeted US financial policy,  warning that he would have a stark message to deliver at the G20 summit, to "explain that the dollar, which at the end of World War II was the only world currency, can no longer claim to be the sole world currency."

Sarkozy's insistence on laying the foundation for a second summit in February with the Obama administration shows the French government's desire to turn the page on the Bush presidency.

“LOST” - “Lift it up.” Episodes 18 – 25

MICHAEL: Yeah, I used to say that, too, 'til I saw the Flat Iron Building

WALT: What's that?

MICHAEL: Oldest skyscraper in the city, built in 1902. It's flat. That one building inspired me to start drawing and, you know, designing things.

[Shot of waves crashing. We see Hurley bending over holding a bunch of bamboo together where they are rebuilding the raft.]

 [Jin makes a motion with his hands.]

HURLEY: You want to make snowballs?

MICHAEL: He wants you to hold the bamboo tighter. I think

SAYID: Territoire Fonce,

Shannon translated it. It means dark territory. Does that sound like a place you'd like to visit?

HURLEY: This is the greatest guy I know, my, my, my grandpa, Tito. He's worked 3 jobs for -- how long has it been now?

TITO: 52 years.

HURLEY: 52 years. 70 years old

 [We see Charlie walking the beach with a crying baby.]

ARZT: It's been raining every damn afternoon. That means that we are on the cusp on monsoon season. Monsoon season is bad. Now, the trade winds are blowing north right now -- shipping lanes are north -- so north is exactly where you want to be.

MICHAEL: What does that mean?

ARZT: It means that when monsoon season hits the trade winds are going to shift to the south. The raft goes with the wind. Can anyone tell me what is the only piece of land that is south of us?

JACK: Antarctica.

ARZT: That's right, Jack, Antarctica.

(We see Kate and Sun at a beach shelter.]

SUN: Jack knows. I didn't tell him it was your idea.

KATE: Thanks.

SUN: Why should you be punished? You were only trying to help me. He said he wouldn't tell the Others.

KATE: Yeah, Jack's good at keeping secrets.

 
JACK: Lumberjack.

SAWYER: Excuse me?

JACK: I never asked you what you did. I'm taking a wild guess -- lumberjack.

DANIELLE: The Black Rock is not far. This is where it all began -- where my team got infected -- where Montand lost his arm. We must move quickly.

ARZT: Hold on, wait, hold on. What are we a couple miles inland? [to Danielle] A tsunami probably swept it here, huh, right?

[They stop at the Nigerian plane site.]

CHARLIE: Is this where Boone fell?

SAYID: The plane was up there.

CHARLIE: Where did it come from?

SAYID: Based on the maps inside -- Nigeria.

HURLEY: So, dude? What do you think is inside of that hatch thing?

LOCKE: What do you think is inside it?

HURLEY: Stacks of TV dinners from the 50's, or something.

[FLASHBACK - Jack running the steps at a stadium. Another person comes into view running faster than Jack. Jack tries to keep pace but hurts his ankle.]

JACK:  Ow, damn it.

DESMOND: You alright, brother?

JACK: I'm fine. I'm fine.

DESMOND: Take it easy; keep the weight off. Here, let me have a look. Does this hurt? [Jack shakes his head] You haven't sprained it then. I don't fancy your chances of catching up with me tonight, though.

JACK: I wasn't trying to catch up.

DESMOND: Aye, of course you weren't.

DESMOND: You a doctor then? So what's your excuse?

JACK: Excuse?

DESMOND: For running like the devil's chasing you.

 DESMOND: Oh, and you don't believe in miracles?  Right. Well then, I'm going to give you some advice anyway. You have to lift it up.

JACK: Lift it up?

 DESMOND: Jack, I'm Desmond. Good luck, brother. See you in another life, yeah?