One doesn’t have to be Desmond on "LOST" or a prophet to predict the future when one can read the latest International Energy Agency forecast:
"In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is of course not good news from a global oil supply point of view."
Of course. Better read that line again. The nightmare scenario of peak oil starts in 2020.
That's 11 years from now.
In preparation for its 2008 report, the IEA conducted a detailed study of depletion rates in 800 of the world's largest oil fields. Nobody had ever done such work before and what the IEA found caused the agency to revise its understanding of the world's energy future in a profound way.
Remember, this is the same IEA that always insisted peak oil was decades off. Nothing to worry about. And so governments didn't.
Wait, there’s more: The IEA reports "current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," declared Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA.
"Rising imports of oil and gas into OECD regions and developing Asia, together with the growing concentration of production in a small number of countries, would increase our susceptibility to supply disruptions and sharp price hikes. At the same time, greenhouse-gas emissions would be driven up inexorably, putting the world on track for an eventual global temperature increase of up to 6° C."
The U.S. Department of Energy commissioned a report by oil analyst Robert L. Hirsch on how long it would take for developed economies to mitigate the effects of peak oil. Hirsch concluded that even a worldwide emergency response launched 10 years before the crisis hit would still result in "a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked."
In order to avoid this scenario, Hirsch advised, a massive mitigation program must begin at least 20 years before peak.
"We must have a "global energy revolution," says IEA's Fatih Birol. "I think time is not on our side here."
Now THAT is prophetic.